National polls are worth watching, but what were the national polls saying in 2004? Howard Dean was virtually a shoe-in for the nomination. He had an aura of inevitability in the weeks leading up to Iowa: a massive fundraising machine, high profile endorsements including ones from Al Gore and several major unions. The day after the Iowa caucuses, Dean was done. It was down to John Kerry and whether or not John Edwards or Wes Clark was going to be able to (first) become the not-Kerry candidate and (second) parlay that into some primary victories. Neither happened and Kerry won the nomination.
In generic opinion polls in Iowa, Edwards is often third to Clinton and Obama. But in a half dozen polls of “likely caucus go-ers”, a pretty well accepted category of methodologies in polling, over the last six months, Edwards has come out on top. Here’s another.

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