For months and months and months, John Edwards has been right at the top in Iowa. Poll after poll has put him at 23+%, always within the margin of error of being in first or second place. The national media just refused to cover or even tell that story, though. The story has been “Hillary Clinton’s inevitability” or “Hillary vs. Obama”. A poll by Research 2000 is getting a lot of coverage today. It has Edwards and Obama at 29%, Hillary at 28. The real story hasn’t changed. It’s still a dead heat. But today, I’m seeing pundits say that Hillary needs to hope that Edwards wins Iowa if she doesn’t. They believe that Edwards can’t carry the momentum from an Iowa win. It’s an interesting shift in the narrative, but one that still refuses to take Edwards seriously as a candidate. I can’t figure that out. An Edwards win in Iowa will certainly help him in New Hampshire, but it seems to me that it could really help him in South Carolina, Michigan, and Florida. Edwards has long been the strongest candidate in Nevada. Someone winning most of those states is in a great position for the 20 plus state primary on Tuesday, February 5th.

I’m far from saying Edwards is going to pull this thing out, but I think any solid look at the first month’s worth of primaries that starts with an Edwards win would then look very good for him.

This entry was posted on Friday, December 28th, 2007 at 2:42 pm and is filed under Prez08, blog, electoral politics. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.