If the conventional wisdom of the last few days was correct, then Barack Obama will win Iowa. The conventional wisdom was that high voter turnout favors Obama who has all these students and independents voting for him. The conventional wisdom was that low voter turnout favored John Edwards whose support comes from a lot of tried and true caucus goers. Polling places all over Iowa are reporting in packed to the gills, often with 2,3 or 5 times as many caucus goers as those same precincts had in 2004. 2004 was a year of record turnout.
The conventional wisdom does line up with a poll released this morning that gave Obama the largest lead he’s seen so far. I know one thing that’s different this year. I’m not willing to make a prediction even on the night of the vote. Four years ago, I predicted a Kerry victory a couple of days ahead of the polls. I was a pretty strong Dean supporter at the time. It hurt to make that prediction because Kerry wasn’t my 2nd, 3rd, or even 4th choice. A lot of the media still thought that Dean’s money, organization, and endorsements might well carry him to victory.
