It doesn’t seem to be getting anywhere near the coverage that the horrific response to Katrina got, but it seems like FEMA isn’t doing much better in their response to Ike. I had heard some of this from a couple of people I know in Houston. One is a co-worker and the other is a former co-worker. The devastation, especially on the islands, is a lot worse than what you’d think based on the national coverage.

The general counsel of the Texas Department of Housing and Community Affairs says “they don’t seem to care much if we lose these communities down there.”. I’ve heard many a smug, holier than thou conservative type say that we shouldn’t provide government aid to people who live in hurricane country (or earthquake country, or fire country or anything other than the snow and tornado country where they seem to live). You’ve got to wonder after a while: is it incompetence driving FEMA’s behavior or is policy? Maybe they really don’t care if we lose those communities.

I have nothing particularly original to say about the fact that Ted Stevens was found guilty on all seven counts. I am enjoying the chance to gloat. One would hope this means he won’t win re-election, but in a state where the populace is capable of giving Sarah Palin an 80% approval rating, I would imagine that anything is possible. I’m damn glad to see that vile, nasty old fucker not just convicted, but convicted on each and every count. How does it feel to be a felon, Ted?

In the last few days, the No on 8 forces have started winning the money game again. KTVU-TV reports that No on 8 has raised about $32 million, while the Mormons Yes on 8 people have raised about $28 million. Starting at least six weeks ago and as recently as ten days ago, the Yes forces were out-raising us. General, the side the raises the most money wins these California ballot props. Let’s hope our money has come in (and keeps coming in) in time to win this thing.

I was reading a Reuters article today* that asks the question what’s next for conservatives if McCain loses. The nice thing about the article is that you get a slight sense that the conservative activists have already written 2008 off. They’re actively talking amongst themselves about 2010 and 2012. I was heartened to read two things in the article that make me very happy if the conservatives really go down this road. One is that they’re talking about Sarah Palin as the conservative standard bearer for 2012. Given some of the things that have been coming out in the last week about tensions between the McCain and Palin camps, this isn’t a real surprise. But the other is that they’re talking about the culture wars as a path back to victory. Racist, fascist asshole William Donohue who is head of the Catholic League has this to say: “I’ve been on the phone the last couple of days with some of my friends … and we’re getting ready for the biggest culture war battles ever,” Donohue said.

If they think that’s their path to beating Obama in 2012, they’re dead wrong. It’s not the way back to majorities in the house or senate either. I agree with the log cabin Republican guy in the article who says in the long run that’s the path to to being a party that holds onto 160 or so house seats in the south and midwest.

*I lost the original link when my first attempt to post this blew up. I’ve found the same article at the Canada post site.

I’ve seen a couple of different people asking recently where they should donate money as we head toward the election. Does Obama still need money after raising a couple hundred million over the last two months? What about other causes and candidates?

Here are my recommendations:

Whether you live in California or not, you can help us defeat Proposition 8. It will revoke the right to marry for gays and lesbians in the state, enshrining bigotry into our state constitution. Donate Here.

The Democrats will get their senate majority to at least 56 seats this fall. They have an outside chance of making it all the way to 60. The best thing you can do for a potential President Obama is give him a filibuster proof majority in the US Senate. Some of the seats where your donation could have an impact are:

Jim Martin for Senate from Georgia. There’s a contribution link on his home page. This is one of the places where I think your money can do the most good.

The Democrats have a good shot at picking up the following seats, but the candidates could certainly use your money:
Kay Hagen, Jeanne Shaheen, Mark Begich, and Udall Dynasty heirs Mark in Colorado and Tom in New Mexico.

Less likely, but necessary to get to that 60 seat majority are Rick Noriega in Texas, Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi, and the one that really has my heart: Bruce Lunsford in Kentucky. It’s not so much that I’m in love with Lunsford as it is I just really despise that bug-eyed, lying, bigoted sack of shit that he’s up against in Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

Spend wisely!

One development that has been interesting to note in this election vs. 2004 is just how much better organized the online presences of the various interest groups are. I have received voter guides from a bunch of the various groups that have my email address. Some provide both candidate and ballot prop recommendations, others just do the ballot props. Most of them do unsurprisingly similar recommendations for or against various measures. It’s interesting to see where they’re different or where the various groups may choose not to make a recommendation at all.

I think this is the kind of thing my poli sci student self of 15 years ago would have been ecstatic over.

In a couple of different discussion threads in the last couple of months, I have argued that Obama’s got a decent chance of winning Georgia. I’ve looked at Clinton’s win in 1992 and how strong the African American vote is in the state for trends that would back that up. TPM has an article making the same points, but they’ve crunched the numbers–including some demographic numbers that the state government has made available on the early vote so far. It’s a good read.

I decided to see how many times I had to run the simulation at www.270towin.com before McCain came out the winner. I gave up after my twenty fifth attempt. It took eleven attempts before Obama came in at less than three hundred electoral votes. He came in above three hundred and forty more often than he came in under three hundred.

I feel even more confident about what I said a week and a half ago. The Obama campaign raised $150 million in the month of September alone. Obama had set the record for monthly fundraising the previous month when he raised $66 million. That certainly helps to explain some of the turns in the campaign over the last couple of weeks. The McCain camp really had no choice but to pull out of some states and really focus their efforts to have any chance of being in this. They just don’t have the money to compete.

Another great moment for Chris Matthews today. He was listening to right wing nutjob congresswoman Michele Bachmann prattle on about how Barack Obama associates with all sorts of anti-American people and then starts implying that anyone who is liberal or leftist might be anti-American. Matthews just started questioning her about the rhetoric she was using, asking if some of the people she had directly referenced like Nancy Pelosi and Harry Reid were anti-American. She kept this awful, unflinching stepford wife smile on her face and wouldn’t back down from it. He pointed out what large percentages of the country are self-described liberals and conservatives and asked again if all the liberals were anti-American. She demurred, but then went back to implying that there may be members of congress who are anti-American. Matthews finally asked her how many of the congresspeople and senators that she serves with does she suspect of being anti-American. She said that it would be good to know and said flat out that the media should start investigating and do an expose on the anti-Americans serving in congress. She was pretty much directly calling for a new McCarthyism.