I’m gonna go ahead and say it.

If we have a free, fair election and there’s no terrorist attack between then and now, Obama wins this thing.

I know that three and a half weeks is a lifetime in politics. I know Obama could make some major fuckup or McCain could pull some amazing display of political dexterity in that time. I started feeling like this thing was done after McCain’s erratic behavior heading into the first debate. McCain’s response to the whole economic crisis made him look desperate and unable to lead on the biggest concern of the day. I felt confirmed by that in the nasty, unfair, distorted attacks that were being made on Obama around Bill Ayers. I felt it deep in my gut that this stuff was going to turn off moderates, swing voters, independents, affluent suburban types, etc. These are the people that McCain needed to win this thing. The whole logic of a McCain campaign was that his “maverick” (and god am I sick of even hearing that word) image would play well with them. I had long wondered if the hard right tack he took at the end of the primaries to try to shore up his base damaged that possibility. I think this hamfisted attempt at Rovian politics put the nail in his coffin. You don’t do this stuff yourself. You find an independent expenditure group to do it. You’ve gotta stay high minded, optimistic, and self-assured as a candidate for President. When you go negative, there has to be enough of a sheen of substance to it that it doesn’t just get torn apart by the mainstream media. McCain failed on all fronts there.

That would have been enough to make me write this post. But at the close of business here on the west coast, the Alaska legislature brought it home. A unanimous, bipartisan vote says that Sarah Palin abused her power as governor in this troopergate mess. The McCain campaign will try to say that this is a partisan witch hunt. So far, their weak response to this is that it’s not a fair report because the legislature didn’t speak to her. Well, anyone with an internet connection can tell you that’s because she refused to speak to them. There is no way to spin this finding as a partisan thing. It just doesn’t hold up to even the shallowest scrutiny. If you’re thinking that the McCain camp can somehow dump Palin now and make a better pick…well, you’re wrong. Even if she supposedly resigns from the ticket, replacing her makes McCain look even worse. It doesn’t mean they won’t do it, but it puts the lie to McCain’s claims of superior judgment and experience in the most pointed way possible.

If she does stick around, she’s got no credibility as an attack dog with anyone but the most rabid, racist 20% of the Republican base. As we’ve seen earlier today at a McCain rally, McCain is now having to distance himself from those people. He’s already done too good a job of whipping up their worst instincts.

This entry was posted on Friday, October 10th, 2008 at 6:23 pm and is filed under McCain Watch, Prez08. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.