Prop 8 and the U.S. Supreme Court
It will be interesting to watch whether the legal argument being put forth by the San Francisco City Attorney against Prop 8 holds sway with the court. I haven’t been in California long enough to know the history of the court or much about the individual justices, so I’m not going to take any guesses on whether the argument will win out with them. It’s a simple argument. It’s one that I think logically applies to this case. It’s about the difference between an amendment to the constitution and a revision of the constitution. A revision changes the underlying principles of the constitution. An amendment doesn’t. Based on nothing other than the logic of the case that allowed gay marriage, the court would seem inclined to buy that Prop 8 changed the underlying principles by denying previously held rights.
What I can say with a lot of certainty right now is that we don’t want this thing to go to the U.S. Supreme Court. We’ll lose. Maybe in a court that’s been shaped by a two term Obama presidency we would be better off. If you look at the court and modern life spans, though, Obama is likely to be replacing liberal justices. That’s good in that it keeps the court from turning further to the right. It keeps Roe alive. It doesn’t do much to help us reverse the trends of recent years, though. Our best chance for replacing a conservative is Anthony Kennedy. He’s the swing vote of the conservatives and has a pretty good record on gay rights. He (as a single example among many) wrote the opinion in Lawrence v. Texas that overturned the sodomy law in Texas.
A two term Obama presidency has an outside chance of replacing Scalia. Scalia and Kennedy are the same age, but Scalia seems like the type to hold on until he dies or just before. In interviews, it is clear that he absolutely lives for that court.
Clarence Thomas is twelve years younger than these two.
Alito is two years younger than Thomas. Chief Justice Roberts is only fifty three!
Any of y’all know any thirty year old pinko judges we can get on the nomination list?
