The switch by Arlen Specter to the Democratic party is big news. It’s not big news that also requires big analysis. Frankly, the Republican spin on this is probably more accurate than the Specter spin. This was a simple political calculation. If I had to put money on who would have won a Specter vs. Toomey primary battle, I would have put that money on Toomey. Specter barely beat him in 2004. The Obama and Clinton campaigns got a lot of moderates to switch to the Democratic Party. That primary electorate would be even more conservative now than it was six years ago.

In a Specter vs. Toomey general election, Specter probably walks away with it pretty easily.

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