The GOP is trying really hard to convince people that Charlie Crist is a dead man. He might not win his bid for the senate this fall, but I think it’s going to be a much closer fight than a lot of observers do. I’m a little more optimistic about Crist’s chances than the Brad Coker from Mason Dixon is quoted as being in this article. If Crist can stay competitive in the money, I think he stays in this thing and Meek ends up becoming the distant third instead of Crist dropping off. A couple of months back in an article I read someone in the Democratic Party in Florida was quoted as saying that Crist was the best Democratic governor of the state in his life time. I’m not surprised to see Crist getting so much of his support from Democrats. He’s got the Police Benevolent Assoc. and the teachers unions behind him. If he pulls in a couple more well organized constituent groups that are good at putting feet on the ground in the state, he could still win this thing.

While most Floridians are going to get introduced to Kendrick Meek in the next few months, I know who the guy is quite well. I’ve never been particularly impressed with him as a candidate before. He seemed to have done little more than inherit his position from his much more interesting and dynamic mother. If he were Kendrick Smith, I doubt he’d have been part of the Lt. Gov’s security detail as a state trooper. He may well not have been a sitting congressman right now. The long and deep ties to Florida’s African American political class is absolutely and without a doubt that biggest asset he’s got. I don’t think it’ll be hard for Crist to peel away Democrats. Unlike every other Republican at the statewide level over the last two decades, Crist has pretty good relations with the African American and non-Cuban Latino communities in this state. I think Crist’s decision to stay in this thing as an independent (and the steps he’s taken in the last month to make that viable) have been really good for him. I saw mention of a poll today that has him with 56% approval ratings in Florida. That’s up 11 points from a month ago and makes him surprisingly popular for a governor in a state with such a bad economy. At a time when all the tea party sheep have been saying that trying to govern as a post-partisan has spelled the end of Crist’s career, it may turn out to have been the thing that saved it. I’d be surprised if Meek or Rubio has anything approaching a statewide 56% approval rating. I kinda doubt meek even has 56% name recognition. In addition to just being a big media story for the run itself, Crist has the advantage of being the sitting governor. He’s not going to need to do as much media buying as the other two.

“All politics is local” is one of the most unquestioned pieces of political wisdom in the US system. In pondering that phrase in the context of the last couple of years of US politics, I’ve found myself having walked into one of those media studies paradoxes. All politics is local. Yes, this is true. Simultaneously, in the age of the internet all politics is national. This is why 2008 and 2009 were such bad years for the GOP. They’re why 2010 might not be as good as the prognosticators are saying it will. It’s why, whether 2010 is great for the GOP or not, they have major long term hurdles ahead. You can’t pursue a “southern strategy” in American politics anymore. The racist thugs that show up at your small town or suburban rallies (and your tea parties) and the things you say to rile them up will show up on youtube before your rally is even over. You can’t smile and nod to these people and then play Mr. or Mrs. Moderate when the network news cameras are on you. Perhaps more importantly, you cant expect anything you say at even the most closed door, invitation only session to be private anymore.

I don’t know how long this moment, this particular overlap of the old and the new, will carry on. I do know that it’s a moment that works in favor of the Democrats generically, though. They’ve spent 100 years desperately trying to purge their left flank. The Republicans have spent several decades trying to do the opposite in the form of a winking, silent embrace of their right flank. These are deeply ingrained habits, instincts even, in the two parties.