Crist the independent
The GOP is trying really hard to convince people that Charlie Crist is a dead man. He might not win his bid for the senate this fall, but I think it’s going to be a much closer fight than a lot of observers do. I’m a little more optimistic about Crist’s chances than the Brad Coker from Mason Dixon is quoted as being in this article. If Crist can stay competitive in the money, I think he stays in this thing and Meek ends up becoming the distant third instead of Crist dropping off. A couple of months back in an article I read someone in the Democratic Party in Florida was quoted as saying that Crist was the best Democratic governor of the state in his life time. I’m not surprised to see Crist getting so much of his support from Democrats. He’s got the Police Benevolent Assoc. and the teachers unions behind him. If he pulls in a couple more well organized constituent groups that are good at putting feet on the ground in the state, he could still win this thing.
While most Floridians are going to get introduced to Kendrick Meek in the next few months, I know who the guy is quite well. I’ve never been particularly impressed with him as a candidate before. He seemed to have done little more than inherit his position from his much more interesting and dynamic mother. If he were Kendrick Smith, I doubt he’d have been part of the Lt. Gov’s security detail as a state trooper. He may well not have been a sitting congressman right now. The long and deep ties to Florida’s African American political class is absolutely and without a doubt that biggest asset he’s got. I don’t think it’ll be hard for Crist to peel away Democrats. Unlike every other Republican at the statewide level over the last two decades, Crist has pretty good relations with the African American and non-Cuban Latino communities in this state. I think Crist’s decision to stay in this thing as an independent (and the steps he’s taken in the last month to make that viable) have been really good for him. I saw mention of a poll today that has him with 56% approval ratings in Florida. That’s up 11 points from a month ago and makes him surprisingly popular for a governor in a state with such a bad economy. At a time when all the tea party sheep have been saying that trying to govern as a post-partisan has spelled the end of Crist’s career, it may turn out to have been the thing that saved it. I’d be surprised if Meek or Rubio has anything approaching a statewide 56% approval rating. I kinda doubt meek even has 56% name recognition. In addition to just being a big media story for the run itself, Crist has the advantage of being the sitting governor. He’s not going to need to do as much media buying as the other two.
