policywank » Prez08

OK

Administrator — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 23:59:10 +0000

I was digging through the state maps at the google maps elections page earlier. If their map was correct, Obama didn’t manage to take a single county in Oklahoma. If all of their maps are correct, Oklahoma was the only state where every county went for the same candidate. If we ever see a Democrat take 49 states, the holdout will be Oklahoma.

Livebloggin’ 7

Administrator — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 02:21:36 +0000

Fox calls New Mexico for Obama. yay!

CNN calls Mitch McConnell holding onto his senate seat. Fuck.

Livebloggin’ 6

Administrator — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 01:38:04 +0000

Liddy Dole loses her senate seat as of 8:30 eastern according to MSNBC.

Obama continues to hold that 200k vote lead in Florida.

MSNBC calling Georgia for McCain. The senate seat isn’t looking great there, either. No one I’m watching has called it yet, though.

Exit polling in Virginia makes this one look like a real nailbiter, but still probably leaning toward Obama.

Livebloggin’ 4

Administrator — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 01:04:25 +0000

MSNBC is calling the entire northeastern corner of the country for Obama, including both New Hampshire and Pennsylvania. The exit polling must be pretty damn strong because their calling PA with 0% of precincts reporting.

FoxNews and CNN are not calling Pennsylvania yet.

Livebloggin 3

Administrator — Wed, 05 Nov 2008 00:47:34 +0000

I’m watching’ McCain’s last statement on the election until after the results are final. He’s totally being the brave soldier right now. His expressions, tone of voice, and body language belie his words.

AP Exit polling says that 1/3rd of privatization fanatic Mitch Daniels’ in Indiana voted for Obama.

Tim Robbins

Administrator — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 21:13:05 +0000

About ten days ago, I saw Tim Robbins on Real Time with Bill Maher. Robbins started off his appearance by talking about voter suppression and how you would need to fight it if you showed up to vote and weren’t on the list.

Tim Robbins was not on the list at his polling place this morning. This is the same polling place where Robbins voted in the primaries. It is, he claims, the same polling place where he has voted for years and years. Robbins was forced to go to the main board of elections office to have his registration verified and then was able to vote.

Irony or retribution?

Make sure your vote counts

Administrator — Tue, 04 Nov 2008 02:54:47 +0000

If you are going to vote in person at a polling place tomorrow, make damn sure your vote counts. A few weeks ago I said that if we had a free, fair election without a staged terrorist attack, coup, or other extreme circumstance that Obama would win this thing. I believe it.

Don’t for a second think that Republican operatives aren’t trying their damnedest right now to steal this election. We know that tens if not hundreds of thousands of voters have been purged from the rolls this year by Republican secretaries of state or equivalent Republican elections officials all across this country. We know that they have done this in spite of laws that forbid them from doing it. They don’t care about the law. The “this time only” decision in Bush v. Gore shows that even at the highest levles, they only care about power. They don’t care about democracy. They don’t care about seeing that votes are counted and the will of the people is respected.

If anyone tries to give you a provisional ballot, fight that like hell. Most of them are never counted in the total. If anyone tries to stop you from fighting, fight that like hell. If you think the touch screen voting machine that you find yourself using is playing loose with your vote, you raise a stink.

If all the votes are counted tomorrow, Barack Obama will win this thing. Let’s hope the margin is so large that they can’t steal it.

Electoral Maps

Administrator — Sun, 02 Nov 2008 22:40:32 +0000

Like many of you, I’m thinking a lot about the election and plotting various potential maps. I won’t make a final prediction until tomorrow night, but I’ll give you two scenarios right now. The first is a rough estimate of what I think will happen. The second is my hope of what will happen and is still within the realm of possibilities.

Georgia

Administrator — Wed, 22 Oct 2008 14:39:58 +0000

In a couple of different discussion threads in the last couple of months, I have argued that Obama’s got a decent chance of winning Georgia. I’ve looked at Clinton’s win in 1992 and how strong the African American vote is in the state for trends that would back that up. TPM has an article making the same points, but they’ve crunched the numbers–including some demographic numbers that the state government has made available on the early vote so far. It’s a good read.

Almost statistically meaningless

Administrator — Tue, 21 Oct 2008 01:31:22 +0000

I decided to see how many times I had to run the simulation at www.270towin.com before McCain came out the winner. I gave up after my twenty fifth attempt. It took eleven attempts before Obama came in at less than three hundred electoral votes. He came in above three hundred and forty more often than he came in under three hundred.