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	<description>Wankers Welcome</description>
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		<title>Palin &amp; I late to the game</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2011/09/12/palin-i-late-to-the-game/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2011/09/12/palin-i-late-to-the-game/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 13 Sep 2011 00:17:31 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electoral politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=567</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Over Labor Day weekend, Sarah Palin gave a speech in Iowa with some formidable pieces in it. I&#8217;m a bit late to the game on cmmenting about it. She&#8217;s a bit late to the game on giving it. If she had given this speech eight months ago, I might be a bit afraid. I want [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Over Labor Day weekend, Sarah Palin gave a speech in Iowa with some formidable pieces in it. I&#8217;m a bit late to the game on cmmenting about it. She&#8217;s a bit late to the game on giving it. If she had given this speech eight months ago, I might be a bit afraid. I want to highlight two quotes below that were in a little piece in the Atlantic a week ago. They&#8217;re exactly the same type of thing that made me so afraid of a potential Mike Huckabee candidacy. Though I think it&#8217;s too late for her to change her image much for the 2012 campaign season and too late for her to have a shot at the nomination right now, this could be her way of starting to re-position herself for 2016. Palin doesn&#8217;t quite have Huckabee&#8217;s knack for populist economics or anything approaching his authenticity as someone who lives and serves the doctrines of the religious right. She doesn&#8217;t have his charm or affable manner. She does have 100 times his charisma, though, and an army of adoring fans. Based on the two quotes that follow, she&#8217;s got someone very savvy working for her. This is the kind of fake populism that could sell. I mean, hell, I have trouble arguing with most of what she says as a block. You really have to start picking apart individual words and phrases to unravel it. It&#8217;s not something that&#8217;s just flat out wrong on its face. There&#8217;s definitely something about Palin&#8217;s appeal and her ability to change and mutate while claiming absolute, immutable truth that also ties in well with Andrew Sullivan&#8217;s <a href="http://andrewsullivan.thedailybeast.com/2011/09/goodbye-to-all-that-the-lofgren-thesis.html"> piece today</a> in The Daily Beast.</p>
<p>&#8220;The President&#8217;s big campaign donors got nice returns for their &#8216;investments&#8217; in him to the tune of billions of your tax dollars in the form of &#8216;green energy&#8217; stimulus funds. The technical term for this is &#8216;pay-to-play.&#8217; Between bailouts for Wall Street cronies and stimulus projects for union bosses&#8217; security and &#8220;green energy&#8221; giveaways, he took care of his friends. And now they&#8217;re on course to raise a billion dollars for his re-election bid so that they can do it all over again.&#8221;</p>
<p>&#8220;Some GOP candidates also raised mammoth amounts of cash, and we need to ask them, too: What, if anything, do their donors expect in return for their &#8216;investments&#8217;? We need to know this because our country can&#8217;t afford more trillion-dollar &#8220;thank you&#8221; notes to campaign backers. It is an important question, and it cuts to the heart of our problem. And I speak from experience in confronting the corruption and the crony capitalism since starting out in public office 20 years ago. I&#8217;ve been out-spent in my campaigns two to one, three to one, five to one&#8230; But the reason is simple: It&#8217;s because like you, I&#8217;m not for sale.&#8221;</p>
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		<title>Mistakes of the 2008 Democratic Primary</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2011/08/10/560/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2011/08/10/560/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 10 Aug 2011 19:24:10 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[2012]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[electoral politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Obama]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=560</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Joan Walsh has a decent piece in Salon today entitled Mistakes of the 2008 Democratic Primary. I agree with a lot of what she says. I don&#8217;t think you can know whether Clinton would have been more progressive than Obama. I don&#8217;t think she would have. On policy, they were damned near identical. Neither one [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Joan Walsh has a decent piece in Salon today entitled <a href="http://www.salon.com/news/opinion/joan_walsh/index.html?story=/opinion/walsh/politics/2011/08/10/mistakes_of_2008_primary&#038;source=newsletter&#038;utm_source=contactology&#038;utm_medium=email&#038;utm_campaign=Salon_Daily%20Newsletter%20%28Not%20Premium%29_7_30_110">Mistakes of the 2008 Democratic Primary</a>. I agree with a lot of what she says. I don&#8217;t think you can know whether Clinton would have been more progressive than Obama. I don&#8217;t think she would have. On policy, they were damned near identical. Neither one was a progressive. The progressives in the race were Kucinich and Edwards. One thing you can&#8217;t do, though, is look back in hindsight and say that we should have chosen Edwards. Obviously, that would have been a total disaster. No one takes Kucinich seriously as potential president outside of his own fans. That leaves you Obama or Clinton. I think a lot of progressives were willing to sort of graft a projection of progressivism on to Clinton or Obama that never existed because of the tendency to accept identity politics in the Democratic Party. In fact, I think a lot of Obama supporters did just that. If you were going to graft progressivism onto a candidate, he was the easier choice even without the identity politics. He quite intentionally used soaring, hopeful, progressive rhetoric. That was the real genius of his campaign and of his public persona as a national figure before he got in the campaign. Clinton chose to center her campaign image around being the solid, reliable establishment candidate, the steady hand, etc. She left the aspirations of people to see a woman president as a background theme, one that was only emphasized for specific audiences.</p>
<p>In point of fact, there really wasn&#8217;t a viable progressive choice in the 2008 primary in hindsight because of what a total piece of shit John Edwards turned out to be. So even though I currently have no intention of supporting Barack Obama&#8217;s re-election efforts and I may even vote for a 3rd party candidate, I think the idea of setting up a primary challenger for him is folly. If you&#8217;re a democrat, a well funded challenge just guarantees that he loses if the GOP manages to nominate anyone but the worst of the slavering mouth breathers. I&#8217;ll close with the final paragraph of Walsh&#8217;s piece. I think it is pretty much politics 101 for anyone who cares about the electoral world, but it&#8217;s something that damn few people in the mainstream media are willing to engage with. Only some progressive activists and bloggers had taken this on as gospel until pretty recently:</p>
<p><em>I think many on the left anointed Obama the only progressive in the race out of a rescue fantasy. But it&#8217;s possible people who want to see Obama face a primary &#8212; and I do not, as I&#8217;ve said too many times to count &#8212; have the same fantasy with a different, as yet unnamed savior. It gives progressives a sense of control: It&#8217;s not that Republicans are better organized than we are, or that they&#8217;ll fight Democrats by any means necessary; it&#8217;s our fault that we somehow chose the wrong candidate. At least we might have it in our power to make better choices. But I think it&#8217;s time to reckon with the fact that no matter whom we choose, Rush Limbaugh and his Republican Party will do whatever it takes to see them fail.</em></p>
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		<title>The next time</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2011/07/29/the-next-time/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2011/07/29/the-next-time/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 29 Jul 2011 12:50:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[bank failure related]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[blog]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[economics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=555</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[When the 2008 financial crisis hit, I supported the bail outs of the banks. This is the second time in my life that I&#8217;ve been struck by a failure to imagine just how corrupt our political system really is. Toward the end of the Bush regime, my friend Laura pointed out that all of the [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>When the 2008 financial crisis hit, I supported the bail outs of the banks. This is the second time in my life that I&#8217;ve been struck by a failure to imagine just how corrupt our political system really is. Toward the end of the Bush regime, my friend Laura pointed out that all of the things we were afraid of prior to Bush being appointed President are almost hilarious in hindsight. We were so naive. What actually happened during those 8 years was just beyond our capacity to imagine at the time. To my knowledge, the only person who mostly got it right with Bush was Molly Ivins and even she didn&#8217;t foresee the apparently Cheney inspired, neo-con security state.</p>
<p>In 2008, I failed to imagine that the banks would get the money, essentially, with no strings attached. Even the one slight string that was attached (compensation limits until they&#8217;d paid the money back) was attacked as if it were the foot in the door to resurrect Stalin and install him in the White House. I failed to imagine that, within two years of their near collapse, they would be right back to doing what they had done for the two plus decades prior: helping to bust unions, cut taxes for the rich, slash benefits for the rest of us, drive the country into crippling debt, and leech off as much money from everyone they come into contact with as possible. From the perspective of a person who actually cares about human suffering, it made sense to support the bank bailouts. You&#8217;ll never convince me that letting a few more of them fail wouldn&#8217;t have dropped us right into a Great Depression style economic collapse. I don&#8217;t think 20 or 25 per cent unemployment would have been unlikely at all. Here&#8217;s the rub, though. Without those string, without major reform, we have guaranteed that there will be another bank crisis. It is not a historical accident that we managed to avoid a major banking crisis from the end of the Great Depression to the Savings &#038; Loan scandals of the 80s. We had regulations in place that prevented bank crises. Until that next crisis comes, the finance industry will continue to undermine the living standard and the safety net of the average American. The next time the banks collapse, we ought to let them. We can give them the choice of going under or being nationalized, but either way the current owners should forfeit their investment. That includes me if my 401k is invested in them. Nothing short of a whole sale restructuring of our financial industry is going to stop the US from sliding toward being a third world country.</p>
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		<title>No RIP</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2010/07/16/no-rip/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2010/07/16/no-rip/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 16 Jul 2010 19:10:55 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[electoral politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=553</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[It&#8217;s way too early to be writing an obituary for the Obama presidency. At this point in Clinton&#8217;s first term, he hadn&#8217;t even bottomed out yet. You have to remember that Clinton hit such a low that the much less fragmented national media of the time was talking about whether or not the very presidency [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>It&#8217;s way too early to be writing an obituary for the Obama presidency. At this point in Clinton&#8217;s first term, he hadn&#8217;t even bottomed out yet. You have to remember that Clinton hit such a low that the much less fragmented national media of the time was talking about whether or not the very presidency itself was still relevant in the first half of 1995, but Clinton pretty much sailed through to a re-election in 1996 that was predictable quite a ways out from the first week of November. It&#8217;s reasonable to be a lot less optimistic about the continuation of Pelosi&#8217;s term as Speaker, though.</p>
<p>If I were going to do an autopsy on the Obama presidency today, though, the likely causes of death are simple.</p>
<p>1. He did not understand that his opponents would do anything to win, including intentionally hurting the country.</p>
<p>2. He did not understand how dishonest and vicious his opponents would be. That is just an unforgivable amount of stupidity or naivete after what they did to Bill Clinton.</p>
<p>3. He did not understand that in an economy this bad, people care more about results than about appearances of bipartisanship or about &#8220;the tone&#8221;.</p>
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		<title>Gloating</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2010/06/22/gloating/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2010/06/22/gloating/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 22 Jun 2010 15:56:59 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[electoral politics]]></category>
		<category><![CDATA[Florida Politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=550</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[My zombie blog is just for gloating today. Back on April 30th, I wrote a post wherein I basically said that all of the rumors of Charlie Crist&#8217;s political demise were greatly exaggerated. At the time, The Times, The Post, and the networks were calling his impending and then announced run as an independent a [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>My zombie blog is just for gloating today.</p>
<p>Back on April 30th, I wrote a post wherein I basically said that all of the rumors of Charlie Crist&#8217;s political demise were greatly exaggerated. At the time, The Times, The Post, and the networks were calling his impending and then announced run as an independent a desperate move to try to save his career. In one article I linked, a pollster from Mason Dixon walked us through how Crist couldn&#8217;t win. I disagreed and laid out why.</p>
<p>Yesterday, I got an email from a Democratic fund raiser who has put his law practice on hold to raise money for Crist. I also saw a couple different blog entries (one at the Post, can&#8217;t recall the other) that were surprised to see Crist back from the dead. This is the problem with the national media. Once they have a set narrative, the whole lot of them just gets on board and will usually stick with it until (and sometimes beyond) the point where they just can&#8217;t deny that the facts say something else.</p>
<p>I&#8217;m really not surprised to see Democrats supporting Crist, as I wrote in April. No Democratic governor ever had the guts to take office and then almost immediately restore the voting rights of felons. That&#8217;s, by far, not the only thing that a Crist did that a lot of Democrats wished Lawton Chiles or Bob Graham had done as governor. Conventional wisdom says that California is the trendsetter in American politics, but our current polarized climate started in Florida. In the late 80s, the state&#8217;s African American leaders in the legislature made a deal with the devil. They got districts drawn that gave them free seats for life (and in some cases now handed down to their kids) in exchange for making the rest of the state permanently Republican. Many of Florida&#8217;s districts don&#8217;t even field a challenger from the other party. This has lead to an entire state where most of the legislative and (to a lesser degree) the Senate candidates have pandered to the far right to win the primary, knowing they would probably not face a challenger (and not a viable one if they did) from the other party.</p>
<p>Crist has been a moderate as a statewide figure as Attorney General and as Governor. He&#8217;s really the first statewide figure since Bob Graham to try to appeal to the broad center rather than his party&#8217;s base. If I were still a Floridian and Crist were running for re-election as a governor, I very might well be placing my first vote for a Republican governor. Out of the three candidates running for Senate, he&#8217;s the one who would be most likely to get my vote right now. Some Democrats have said (and Rubio&#8217;s people made use of this) that Crist was the best Democratic governor of their lifetimes. I will not be surprised at all if it turns out that a big chunk of the Democratic establishment comes out publicly in favor of him and raises money for him.</p>
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		<title>Final Verdict</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2010/06/10/final-verdict/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2010/06/10/final-verdict/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Thu, 10 Jun 2010 17:00:46 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[blog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=548</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I have decided to let this place go. I&#8217;m gonna renew the domain name for another year. If I think of some other vehicle for the domain in the next year, I may keep it longer than that. If not: ashes to ashes, bits to bits. I&#8217;ve come to think that writing about social issues [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I have decided to let this place go. I&#8217;m gonna renew the domain name for another year. If I think of some other vehicle for the domain in the next year, I may keep it longer than that. If not: ashes to ashes, bits to bits.</p>
<p>I&#8217;ve come to think that writing about social issues is also useless. That was the only possible other purpose I had in mind for the blog. I have found in my own writing and in reading some other more famous blogs that too much of how your writing is perceived comes not from the ideas in your piece, but from the biography of the writer. I don&#8217;t believe that my own words are ever either so vaguely stated or so poorly written as to allow for, literally, opposite interpretations. Yet I&#8217;ve found that to be the case at times. People who know me, know my family background, know my (admittedly lapsed) resume as an activist, etc will think I am saying one thing while people who don&#8217;t know or only know a portion of that will think I&#8217;m saying the opposite. If my writing isn&#8217;t that vague, then the reasons I&#8217;ve stated seem adequate ones for quitting. It&#8217;s the author, not the words that people are reading. If my writing is that vague, then I&#8217;m not suited to doing this.</p>
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		<title>No Future?</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2010/05/26/no-future/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2010/05/26/no-future/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Wed, 26 May 2010 19:34:40 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[blog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=546</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I am thinking about abandoning this site. I&#8217;ve made four posts here in 2010. Two of them have been about politics. One of my earliest memories is of watching some coverage of the 1976 Democratic convention on TV with my dad. As a four year old, my fascination was with the hats they were wearing. [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I am thinking about abandoning this site. I&#8217;ve made four posts here in 2010. Two of them have been about politics. One of my earliest memories is of watching some coverage of the 1976 Democratic convention on TV with my dad. As a four year old, my fascination was with the hats they were wearing. It&#8217;s not exactly a political memory, but is something that I feel shows how early in my life I found myself influenced by or focused on something related to politics. I&#8217;ve been pretty well obsessed with politics ever since elementary school, though. I volunteered for my first campaign at 15. For the next decade, I volunteered for all sorts of city, county, state, and national campaigns. I was pretty sure that I wanted to run for and serve in elected office. That changed when I was struck with depression at 25. I emerged from that experience as an introvert. The outgoing, energetic me that relished the idea of campaigning was dead. I switched from a poli sci focus to a history focus for grad school partially as a result of that, but I never lost the interest in politics.</p>
<p>In the last year, I&#8217;ve found that I&#8217;m losing that interest. The environment is so toxic. The structure has been so altered by recent supreme court rulings that I don&#8217;t think we&#8217;ll have a functional political system again in my lifetime. I no longer really believe that much good can be done through the political system. At best, you can stave off some of the bad, maybe even roll some of the bad back at times. I think there are ways to do good and I&#8217;m kind of actively looking toward figuring one out that will work for me. I also kind of feel like blogging about politics is just an enormous waste of time. Unless you&#8217;re famous for doing it, I don&#8217;t think your words can ever establish a meaningful reputation or track record by which you&#8217;ll be judged. In a medium that is only words, your actions outside of it don&#8217;t matter either, again, unless you&#8217;re famous for them.</p>
<p>For the last six months, the fact that I actually use some email addresses associated with this domain has been the only thing that&#8217;s kept me from letting it expire. If I continue to feel about this site like I&#8217;ve felt for a while, this may be my last update. The domain expires in a couple months. I may renew it for one more year to have time to switch out the email addresses and archive some content. If I don&#8217;t see you here again, thanks for reading. Hopefully, I&#8217;ll see you somewhere else.</p>
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		<title>Dumbest thing I&#8217;ve read today</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2010/05/04/dumbest-thing-ive-read-today/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2010/05/04/dumbest-thing-ive-read-today/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 May 2010 22:22:25 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[blog]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=544</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[Stephen A. Smith starts this column by saying &#8220;If one thing is clear about Arizona&#8217;s Senate Bill 1070, it is that it invites stereotyping and racial profiling&#8230;&#8221;, but then goes on to say that Major League Baseball should stay out of it. He, like every sports writer, is aware of the stand that the NFL [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>Stephen A. Smith starts <a href="http://www.philly.com/inquirer/columnists/stephen_a_smith/20100504_Stephen_A__Smith__Baseball_s_job_is_not_politics.html">this column</a> by saying &#8220;If one thing is clear about Arizona&#8217;s Senate Bill 1070, it is that it invites stereotyping and racial profiling&#8230;&#8221;, but then goes on to say that Major League Baseball should stay out of it. He, like every sports writer, is aware of the stand that the NFL took in Arizona over the MLK, jr holiday a couple of decades ago. It took some really tortured arguing to come up with a way of saying that the NFL took a stand over civil rights, but that &#8220;stereotyping and racial profiling&#8221; by a state government isn&#8217;t somehow a civil rights issue. This is the dumbest thing I&#8217;ve read today, for sure.</p>
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		<title>Is Stuart Green a moron?</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2010/05/04/is-stuart-green-a-moron/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2010/05/04/is-stuart-green-a-moron/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Tue, 04 May 2010 18:40:14 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[Media]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=541</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[I&#8217;m pondering whether or not Stuart Green from Rutgers Law is a moron, a liar, or a hack. It may not be possible for me to know which category he falls into. His opinion piece at the Monitor is so full of errors and distortions that it certainly seems as if it could have been [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>I&#8217;m pondering whether or not Stuart Green from Rutgers Law is a moron, a liar, or a hack. It may not be possible for me to know which category he falls into. His <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/Commentary/Opinion/2010/0504/iPhone-Gizmodo-and-moral-clarity-about-crime">opinion piece</a> at the Monitor is so full of errors and distortions that it certainly seems as if it could have been his intent to be dishonest. Though the simpler answer is that he doesn&#8217;t know what he&#8217;s talking about. Based on the accounts that I&#8217;ve read Brian Hogan went above and beyond the call of duty in trying to return that iPhone prototype. He had absolutely no way of knowing who the person who left the phone at the bar is. It&#8217;s pretty damn reasonable to assume that a person who leaves the phone they&#8217;ve been using at a bar is the owner of that phone. It&#8217;s not so reasonable to assume that the owner is the firm that manufactured the device. Mr. Hogan originally believed the device was an iPhone 3GS. The device had been disguised to give that appearance. When Mr. Hogan later examined the phone closely and found that it wasn&#8217;t a standard 3GS, he took the step of contacting Apple and telling them what he&#8217;d found. How much struggling to notify someone at an enormous multinational corporation do you have to do to have satisfied Stuart Green&#8217;s standards? </p>
<p>Mr. Green&#8217;s assertion that this is a clear case of theft couldn&#8217;t be more wrong. I see neither an intent to steal nor an act of theft. I see a young man who made reasonable attempts and then some to notify the owner of this property that he possessed it. If Mr. Hogan isn&#8217;t guilty of theft, then the entire &#8220;case&#8221; that Stuart Green makes against Gizmodo  and Jason Chen falls apart. The California shield law should have applied to Mr. Chen&#8217;s home. He should not have had his home searched by the police. The judge who issued the warrant to do so and the police who served it, after being informed of the shield law&#8217;s validity in this case should be disciplined.</p>
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		<title>Crist the independent</title>
		<link>http://www.policywank.com/2010/04/30/crist-the-independent/</link>
		<comments>http://www.policywank.com/2010/04/30/crist-the-independent/#comments</comments>
		<pubDate>Fri, 30 Apr 2010 22:01:19 +0000</pubDate>
		<dc:creator>Dave</dc:creator>
				<category><![CDATA[electoral politics]]></category>

		<guid isPermaLink="false">http://www.policywank.com/?p=539</guid>
		<description><![CDATA[The GOP is trying really hard to convince people that Charlie Crist is a dead man. He might not win his bid for the senate this fall, but I think it&#8217;s going to be a much closer fight than a lot of observers do. I&#8217;m a little more optimistic about Crist&#8217;s chances than the Brad [...]]]></description>
			<content:encoded><![CDATA[<p>The GOP is trying really hard to convince people that Charlie Crist is a dead man. He might not win his bid for the senate this fall, but I think it&#8217;s going to be a much closer fight than a lot of observers do. I&#8217;m a little more optimistic about Crist&#8217;s chances than the Brad Coker from Mason Dixon is quoted as being in <a href="http://www.csmonitor.com/USA/Politics/2010/0430/With-Charlie-Crist-s-independence-day-fireworks-in-Florida">this article</a>. If Crist can stay competitive in the money, I think he stays in this thing and Meek ends up becoming the distant third instead of Crist dropping off. A couple of months back in an article I read someone in the Democratic Party in Florida was quoted as saying that Crist was the best Democratic governor of the state in his life time. I&#8217;m not surprised to see Crist getting so much of his support from Democrats. He&#8217;s got the Police Benevolent Assoc. and the teachers unions behind him. If he pulls in a couple more well organized constituent groups that are good at putting feet on the ground in the state, he could still win this thing.</p>
<p>While most Floridians are going to get introduced to Kendrick Meek in the next few months, I know who the guy is quite well. I&#8217;ve never been particularly impressed with him as a candidate before. He seemed to have done little more than inherit his position from his much more interesting and dynamic mother. If he were Kendrick Smith, I doubt he&#8217;d have been part of the Lt. Gov&#8217;s security detail as a state trooper. He may well not have been a sitting congressman right now. The long and deep ties to Florida&#8217;s African American political class is absolutely and without a doubt that biggest asset he&#8217;s got. I don&#8217;t think it&#8217;ll be hard for Crist to peel away Democrats. Unlike every other Republican at the statewide level over the last two decades, Crist has pretty good relations with the African American and non-Cuban Latino communities in this state. I think Crist&#8217;s decision to stay in this thing as an independent (and the steps he&#8217;s taken in the last month to make that viable) have been really good for him. I saw mention of a poll today that has him with 56% approval ratings in Florida. That&#8217;s up 11 points from a month ago and makes him surprisingly popular for a governor in a state with such a bad economy. At a time when all the tea party sheep have been saying that trying to govern as a post-partisan has spelled the end of Crist&#8217;s career, it may turn out to have been the thing that saved it. I&#8217;d be surprised if Meek or Rubio has anything approaching a statewide 56% approval rating. I kinda doubt meek even has 56% name recognition. In addition to just being a big media story for the run itself, Crist has the advantage of being the sitting governor. He&#8217;s not going to need to do as much media buying as the other two.</p>
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